Commercial real estate does not suffer too much from the crisis
In 2008, and especially in 2009, commercial real estate showed an almost insolent. The residential was breathing a little short, the area of the office panting frankly. The trade him, was doing rather well.
“At this time, we really did not feel the crisis”, says John Collin, head of “retail” to the broker CB Richard Ellis (CBRE). “It is typical of commercial”, continues Peter Wilhelm, CEO of Wilhelm & Co – a group of both investor and promoter of joint projects, always including a share of sales. It is an area a little “crisis proof” much less sensitive to economic fluctuations than the office. ”
The 2010 crisis was expected to knock on the door “retail”. “In the same way as the stock above a year or two the real economy, the business has not responded directly to the financial crisis, says Peter Wilhelm. And yet, it is more stagnant than a real drop in speed. ”
Because yes, even if they drape themselves in prudence, industry professionals admit it: “We expected to find greater difficulties,” says Boris van Haare Heijmeijer, head of retail department of the broker Cushman & Wakefield .
All is not rosy
And in none of the three main branches that make up the commercial property market: the shopping, shopping-centers, trading edge length, these vast areas along these routes connecting cities and more organized retail parks.
Since early 2010, demand for new space is smaller, is there be at CBRE. “This finding is even more marked when it is an international name. The “retailers” have become much more international cautious. It must be said that in recent years, our industry has experienced impressive growth, drawing the rents upwards. This period is over. The best locations will not really worry, even if negotiations are longer and harsh. For cons, the less desirable locations and secondary cities are likely to suffer anymore. ”
An exception, however, notes John Collin: the “retail parks”. “Demand remains strong for well located sites and structured, offering a good mix of retailers. In support of peripheral business at Cushman & Wakefield, John Baheux confirms: “For quality commercial parks, there is still a very high level of demand, even with demand exceeding supply. Some signs present only in the city center are now looking to complete their development on the outskirts without interrupting their expansion in the center. “With, background inevitable crisis. “We must be more qualitative signs are more demanding, both in terms of visibility, accessibility, environmental impact or architectural quality. As for rents, they do not go down, but must increasingly be justified – say they are under pressure. ”
“The old story of licenses”
And we reserve the years to come? After five years in responsible commercial developments, 2010 and 2011 will be rather calm, warns John Collin. “Specifically, some retail parks are expected, no shopping centers. “Not that there are more projects on the table for developers. “But it becomes increasingly difficult to obtain permits. “Immediate Approval Jean Baheux” sensitive topic! For a large project, it takes four to ten years between identification and release! ”
Permits … “An old refrain of real estate, Peter Wilhelm smiled. Perfectly justified. “Who does not explain alone the shortage of projects. “This is mainly due to the financial situation: the banks require more collateral, many projects are therefore more fundable. ”
How long does he risk to endure? Difficult to predict, said John Collin. “Probably a few years given the huge debts displayed by the States. If taxes increase, this will reduce the purchasing power. In fact, everything will depend on the consumption of the Belgians. “
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